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Red114
339711.6
377035.5
36553.7
Blue106
555435.7
558427.2
237525.3
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions987450150114106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#9
53.70.8
53.854.6
Auto1.6
Teleop52.1
End0.0
red by 18.0
5554
#41
35.71.3
33.034.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop35.9
End0.0
Second
3770
#58
35.50.8
31.031.8
Auto-0.0
Teleop35.5
End0.0
red by 8.3
5584
#51
27.21.3
26.427.6
Auto0.9
Teleop26.3
End0.0
Third
3397
#75
11.60.8
13.013.8
Auto-0.7
Teleop12.3
End0.0
blue by 13.7
2375
#61
25.31.3
21.322.6
Auto0.2
Teleop25.1
End0.0