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Red116
522926.7
261948.6
523113.0
Blue51
542412.3
520322.4
515020.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9246015020011651

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2619
Unranked
48.60.0
48.648.6
Auto1.6
Teleop47.0
End0.0
red by 26.2
5203
Unranked
22.40.0
22.422.4
Auto0.4
Teleop22.0
End0.0
Second
5229
Unranked
26.70.0
26.726.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop26.8
End0.0
red by 5.9
5150
Unranked
20.80.0
20.820.8
Auto0.3
Teleop20.5
End0.0
Third
5231
Unranked
13.00.0
13.013.0
Auto0.1
Teleop12.8
End0.0
red by 0.7
5424
Unranked
12.30.0
12.312.3
Auto1.0
Teleop11.3
End0.0