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Red70
355917.5
29233.8
484615.3
Blue77
386513.5
540225.4
152922.5
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions565330406070807077

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
292
#15
33.80.6
32.032.7
Auto0.3
Teleop33.5
End0.0
red by 8.5
5402
#39
25.41.1
22.123.2
Auto0.0
Teleop25.4
End0.0
Second
3559
#27
17.50.6
15.616.2
Auto0.2
Teleop17.3
End0.0
blue by 5.1
1529
#33
22.51.1
22.023.1
Auto0.3
Teleop22.3
End0.0
Third
4846
#19
15.30.6
9.610.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop15.6
End0.0
red by 1.8
3865
#28
13.51.1
10.912.0
Auto0.5
Teleop13.0
End0.0