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Red151
573815.2
207921.4
151977.3
Blue125
23044.7
10214.6
395823.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103600150200250151125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.32.5
70.573.0
Auto15.0
Teleop62.3
End0.0
red by 32.7
230
#4
44.72.8
39.342.1
Auto1.4
Teleop43.3
End0.0
Second
2079
#11
21.43.7
18.221.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop21.5
End0.0
blue by 1.8
3958
#10
23.22.8
18.821.6
Auto-0.4
Teleop23.6
End0.0
Third
5738
#18
15.23.7
11.715.3
Auto0.2
Teleop15.1
End0.0
red by 0.7
102
#20
14.62.8
11.013.8
Auto0.7
Teleop13.9
End0.0