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Red144
568731.3
456443.9
526519.5
Blue54
13330.3
5839.8
360921.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9088608010012014014454

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.90.9
43.143.9
Auto1.3
Teleop42.7
End0.0
red by 4.2
58
#3
39.80.5
40.339.8
Auto1.2
Teleop38.5
End0.0
Second
31.30.9
30.431.3
Auto0.2
Teleop31.1
End0.0
red by 0.9
133
#8
30.30.5
30.930.3
Auto1.5
Teleop28.8
End0.0
Third
5265
#28
19.50.9
18.719.5
Auto0.7
Teleop18.8
End0.0
blue by 1.7
3609
#21
21.20.5
21.721.2
Auto0.9
Teleop20.3
End0.0