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Red100
352528.6
526519.5
528616.2
Blue103
456443.9
359722.4
549418.3
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2666050100150200100103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.63.3
21.324.6
Auto0.7
Teleop27.9
End0.0
blue by 15.3
43.93.9
34.538.4
Auto1.3
Teleop42.7
End0.0
Second
5265
#28
19.55.5
7.913.5
Auto0.7
Teleop18.8
End0.0
blue by 2.8
3597
#12
22.42.3
19.221.5
Auto0.1
Teleop22.3
End0.0
Third
5286
#27
16.25.5
4.39.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop16.4
End0.0
blue by 2.1
5494
#22
18.33.9
8.512.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop18.5
End0.0