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Red148
283228.4
571123.8
118959.9
Blue140
152813.1
354742.7
213762.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions95124050150200250300148140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.92.2
59.061.2
Auto0.9
Teleop59.0
End0.0
blue by 2.9
62.80.8
64.465.2
Auto0.3
Teleop62.5
End0.0
Second
2832
#16
28.42.2
26.729.0
Auto0.4
Teleop28.0
End0.0
blue by 14.3
42.70.8
45.446.2
Auto1.1
Teleop41.5
End0.0
Third
5711
#18
23.82.2
17.519.7
Auto1.1
Teleop22.7
End0.0
red by 10.7
1528
#34
13.10.8
14.215.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop13.5
End0.0