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Red100
501712.5
354742.7
90439.4
Blue184
570812.2
568828.8
102390.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92115050150200250300100184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.70.1
46.246.2
Auto1.1
Teleop41.5
End0.0
blue by 47.4
90.03.4
82.285.7
Auto8.2
Teleop81.9
End0.0
Second
904
#11
39.40.1
39.439.4
Auto0.8
Teleop38.6
End0.0
red by 10.7
5688
#12
28.83.4
22.525.9
Auto0.5
Teleop28.3
End0.0
Third
5017
#36
12.50.1
13.313.3
Auto-0.8
Teleop13.3
End0.0
red by 0.3
5708
#35
12.23.4
10.914.4
Auto0.6
Teleop11.6
End0.0