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Red104
477928.8
438011.2
6823.9
Blue106
481512.9
283445.1
285121.5
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3868050100150200104106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.83.0
22.125.0
Auto0.7
Teleop28.1
End0.0
blue by 16.3
45.12.0
35.637.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop45.3
End0.0
Second
68
#11
23.93.0
13.816.7
Auto1.0
Teleop23.0
End0.0
red by 2.4
2851
#14
21.52.0
22.724.7
Auto0.4
Teleop21.1
End0.0
Third
4380
#27
11.25.0
8.613.6
Auto0.1
Teleop11.1
End0.0
blue by 1.8
4815
#28
12.93.4
7.310.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop13.3
End0.0