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Red82
170123.3
194111.8
477928.8
Blue116
259111.8
12324.2
118941.6
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5466010015020025030082116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.81.8
26.428.2
Auto0.7
Teleop28.1
End0.0
blue by 12.9
41.62.5
36.338.8
Auto1.2
Teleop40.5
End0.0
Second
23.31.8
21.123.0
Auto0.1
Teleop23.2
End0.0
blue by 0.9
123
#10
24.22.5
21.223.7
Auto0.3
Teleop23.9
End0.0
Third
1941
#15
11.81.8
10.112.0
Auto-0.3
Teleop12.1
End0.0
Level
2591
#22
11.82.7
9.211.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.9
End0.0