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Red50
353930.0
526310.0
557714.4
Blue9
525714.3
50509.4
440510.2
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46370206080100120140509

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.00.3
32.532.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop30.0
End0.0
red by 15.7
5257
#16
14.32.6
18.315.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop14.4
End0.0
Second
5577
#14
14.40.2
8.99.1
Auto-0.3
Teleop14.7
End0.0
red by 4.2
4405
#37
10.22.6
10.78.2
Auto0.6
Teleop9.7
End0.0
Third
5263
#27
10.00.3
4.95.2
Auto0.1
Teleop9.9
End0.0
red by 0.5
5050
#28
9.41.5
10.69.0
Auto0.4
Teleop9.0
End0.0