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Red98
125031.5
356823.1
468010.7
Blue110
546715.1
21750.1
575618.5
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions585720408010098110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1250
#15
31.52.0
25.627.6
Auto0.9
Teleop30.6
End0.0
blue by 18.5
217
#3
50.12.4
45.147.5
Auto0.4
Teleop49.7
End0.0
Second
3568
#26
23.13.3
23.626.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop23.5
End0.0
red by 4.6
5756
#32
18.52.4
10.112.5
Auto-0.0
Teleop18.5
End0.0
Third
4680
#34
10.72.0
8.810.8
Auto0.1
Teleop10.6
End0.0
blue by 4.4
5467
#27
15.12.4
6.79.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop15.3
End0.0