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Red134
413028.2
504834.6
481520.8
Blue47
499423.9
516731.2
566211.3
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7463204010012014013447

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.61.0
31.832.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop34.9
End0.0
red by 3.3
31.20.3
31.330.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop31.6
End0.0
Second
4130
#21
28.21.0
25.426.4
Auto0.2
Teleop28.0
End0.0
red by 4.2
4994
#18
23.90.3
24.023.7
Auto0.8
Teleop23.2
End0.0
Third
4815
#14
20.81.0
18.019.0
Auto-0.5
Teleop21.3
End0.0
red by 9.5
5662
#35
11.30.3
11.411.1
Auto0.1
Teleop11.3
End0.0