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Red116
413028.2
504834.6
481520.8
Blue98
543623.2
551729.1
555514.6
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7860204010012014016011698

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.60.6
32.733.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop34.9
End0.0
red by 5.5
29.10.5
28.529.1
Auto1.6
Teleop27.5
End0.0
Second
4130
#21
28.20.6
26.427.0
Auto0.2
Teleop28.0
End0.0
red by 5.0
5436
#12
23.20.5
22.723.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop23.3
End0.0
Third
4815
#14
20.80.6
19.019.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop21.3
End0.0
red by 6.3
5555
#15
14.60.5
14.014.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop14.7
End0.0