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Red174
171844.8
14121.8
205452.5
Blue104
354626.2
566421.2
496753.3
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions978150150174104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.53.8
44.348.2
Auto11.1
Teleop41.4
End0.0
blue by 0.8
53.31.2
50.451.6
Auto5.9
Teleop47.4
End0.0
Second
1718
#11
44.83.8
38.442.3
Auto2.4
Teleop42.4
End0.0
red by 18.7
3546
#22
26.21.7
18.119.8
Auto2.9
Teleop23.3
End0.0
Third
141
#28
21.83.8
14.918.7
Auto1.4
Teleop20.4
End0.0
red by 0.6
5664
#32
21.21.2
17.919.1
Auto0.4
Teleop20.8
End0.0