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Red106
357231.6
240530.4
433717.2
Blue119
171844.8
517318.4
547030.4
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6590050150200250106119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3572
#12
31.61.7
30.432.2
Auto1.6
Teleop30.1
End0.0
blue by 13.2
1718
#11
44.81.5
43.645.1
Auto2.4
Teleop42.4
End0.0
Second
2405
#14
30.41.7
25.227.0
Auto0.8
Teleop29.5
End0.0
blue by 0.1
5470
#17
30.41.5
29.030.4
Auto1.1
Teleop29.4
End0.0
Third
4337
#34
17.21.7
15.417.2
Auto1.6
Teleop15.6
End0.0
blue by 1.2
5173
#30
18.41.5
16.918.4
Auto0.1
Teleop18.3
End0.0