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Red30
249116.2
369117.6
247222.4
Blue47
552212.5
329318.9
320617.0
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions444402060803047

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2472
#14
22.40.7
20.720.0
Auto0.8
Teleop21.5
End0.0
red by 3.5
3293
#22
18.90.0
14.814.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop19.1
End0.0
Second
3691
#24
17.61.2
13.812.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop17.9
End0.0
red by 0.6
3206
#35
17.00.0
16.816.8
Auto0.6
Teleop16.4
End0.0
Third
2491
#40
16.20.7
9.48.7
Auto0.2
Teleop16.0
End0.0
red by 3.7
5522
#26
12.50.0
15.615.6
Auto-0.4
Teleop13.0
End0.0