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Red5
214310.5
46077.4
222017.1
Blue17
38487.8
254911.5
301820.1
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4038010203050607080517

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2220
#49
17.11.7
18.616.8
Auto0.5
Teleop16.6
End0.0
blue by 3.0
3018
#27
20.11.5
20.619.2
Auto1.5
Teleop18.6
End0.0
Second
2143
#42
10.52.9
8.45.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop10.7
End0.0
blue by 1.0
2549
#28
11.51.5
8.87.4
Auto0.8
Teleop10.7
End0.0
Third
4607
#48
7.42.9
13.010.1
Auto0.4
Teleop7.0
End0.0
blue by 0.4
3848
#46
7.81.5
11.09.6
Auto0.0
Teleop7.7
End0.0