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Red58
369011.2
46077.4
369117.6
Blue83
388334.5
25259.6
30237.5
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions294702060801001201401605883

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3691
#24
17.61.8
16.618.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop17.9
End0.0
blue by 16.9
34.51.9
32.134.0
Auto0.0
Teleop34.5
End0.0
Second
3690
#44
11.21.8
9.411.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.3
End0.0
red by 1.7
2525
#50
9.62.7
5.58.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop9.8
End0.0
Third
4607
#48
7.41.8
6.48.3
Auto0.4
Teleop7.0
End0.0
blue by 0.2
3023
#58
7.52.7
7.910.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop7.6
End0.0