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Red100
164070.9
363728.9
70832.2
Blue130
140361.6
511329.1
562433.3
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions989790100110120130100130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.90.2
57.157.3
Auto0.0
Teleop70.9
End0.0
red by 9.2
61.61.5
57.759.2
Auto-0.8
Teleop62.4
End0.0
Second
708
#38
32.20.2
26.827.0
Auto0.2
Teleop32.0
End0.0
blue by 1.2
5624
#30
33.31.5
25.326.8
Auto-0.4
Teleop33.8
End0.0
Third
3637
#22
28.90.2
17.717.9
Auto0.9
Teleop28.0
End0.0
blue by 0.2
5113
#26
29.11.5
17.719.1
Auto-0.6
Teleop29.7
End0.0