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Red194
437326.4
22574.6
20347.9
Blue135
43326.9
540436.7
125733.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13666050100150200250194135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
225
#7
74.63.5
72.876.2
Auto8.5
Teleop66.1
End0.0
red by 37.9
5404
#29
36.72.8
24.126.8
Auto1.9
Teleop34.8
End0.0
Second
203
#17
47.93.5
36.339.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop48.2
End0.0
red by 14.3
1257
#23
33.62.8
29.832.6
Auto0.3
Teleop33.3
End0.0
Third
4373
#13
26.43.5
21.124.6
Auto0.3
Teleop26.2
End0.0
blue by 0.5
433
#51
26.92.8
25.728.5
Auto0.6
Teleop26.2
End0.0