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Red52
268212.8
567911.8
551815.2
Blue32
32297.7
57623.9
350622.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions34331020304050605232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5518
#11
15.21.1
13.614.7
Auto-0.0
Teleop15.3
End0.0
blue by 7.2
22.50.1
22.622.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop22.7
End0.0
Second
2682
#20
12.81.2
10.912.1
Auto0.3
Teleop12.5
End0.0
red by 5.1
3229
#37
7.70.2
7.57.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.8
End0.0
Third
5679
#22
11.81.2
10.912.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.9
End0.0
red by 7.9
5762
#54
3.90.1
4.13.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop4.0
End0.0