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Red150
371827.3
12651.7
50145.7
Blue130
23736.0
287635.3
23057.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92112050150200250300150130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
126
#16
51.72.6
41.944.5
Auto0.6
Teleop51.1
End0.0
blue by 5.5
230
#23
57.20.9
59.760.5
Auto3.1
Teleop54.1
End0.0
Second
501
#9
45.72.6
29.432.0
Auto-0.0
Teleop45.7
End0.0
red by 9.7
237
#38
36.00.9
26.827.7
Auto0.3
Teleop35.7
End0.0
Third
3718
#54
27.32.6
26.929.5
Auto1.9
Teleop25.5
End0.0
blue by 8.0
2876
#33
35.30.9
26.327.2
Auto1.2
Teleop34.1
End0.0