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Red25
81120.9
33236.9
46716.2
Blue2
360917.1
356614.6
404215.1
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions42330100150252

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
811
#19
20.90.5
15.915.4
Auto1.2
Teleop19.7
End0.0
red by 3.8
3609
#11
17.12.3
13.311.0
Auto0.8
Teleop16.3
End0.0
Second
467
#28
16.20.5
13.513.0
Auto0.8
Teleop15.4
End0.0
red by 1.1
4042
#20
15.12.3
9.57.2
Auto0.3
Teleop14.8
End0.0
Third
3323
#39DQ
6.90.5
13.312.8
Auto0.2
Teleop6.6
End0.0
blue by 7.8
3566
#30
14.62.3
12.810.5
Auto-0.2
Teleop14.8
End0.0