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Red16
54904.3
447511.2
457325.1
Blue9
137017.9
55510.8
207013.2
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions37370206080100169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4573
#15
25.11.6
19.818.1
Auto0.3
Teleop24.8
End0.0
red by 7.2
1370
#22
17.91.3
20.018.7
Auto0.2
Teleop17.7
End0.0
Second
4475
#32
11.21.0
10.49.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.4
End0.0
blue by 2.0
2070
#31
13.22.0
10.99.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop13.4
End0.0
Third
5490
#38
4.31.0
6.85.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop4.6
End0.0
blue by 6.5
555
#34
10.81.3
9.78.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.0
End0.0