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Red100
331437.6
315120.9
457329.4
Blue202
259065.3
428534.7
21939.6
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions72117050100150200250100202

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3314
#11
37.60.9
34.935.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop37.8
End0.0
blue by 27.7
65.34.4
59.463.7
Auto2.0
Teleop63.2
End0.0
Second
4573
#14
29.40.9
27.027.9
Auto0.1
Teleop29.3
End0.0
blue by 10.3
219
#6
39.64.4
31.636.0
Auto0.1
Teleop39.6
End0.0
Third
3151
#17
20.90.9
20.121.0
Auto0.1
Teleop20.9
End0.0
blue by 13.7
34.74.4
23.628.0
Auto0.5
Teleop34.2
End0.0