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Red52
175111.2
395027.8
445818.3
Blue143
169052.6
33420.1
57369.5
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5163010015020025030052143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3950
#21
27.80.3
22.822.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop27.8
End0.0
blue by 24.8
52.64.0
43.347.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop52.9
End0.0
Second
4458
#13
18.30.3
21.020.8
Auto0.7
Teleop17.5
End0.0
blue by 1.9
334
#31
20.14.0
17.221.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop20.2
End0.0
Third
1751
#41
11.20.3
11.211.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop11.4
End0.0
red by 1.7
5736
#43
9.56.6
3.19.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop9.7
End0.0