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Red42
151818.2
409315.6
317329.7
Blue86
301540.9
280912.5
300344.0
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33960501502002504286

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3173
#18
29.70.1
22.122.0
Auto0.2
Teleop29.6
End0.0
blue by 14.3
44.00.2
32.132.0
Auto6.4
Teleop37.6
End0.0
Second
1518
#25
18.20.2
12.712.5
Auto0.6
Teleop17.6
End0.0
blue by 22.7
3015
#12
40.90.2
39.539.3
Auto0.8
Teleop40.1
End0.0
Third
4093
#33
15.60.2
9.29.1
Auto1.5
Teleop14.1
End0.0
red by 3.1
2809
#42
12.50.3
17.617.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop12.5
End0.0