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Red152
150751.6
112643.8
383832.2
Blue163
301540.9
403948.5
37832.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1191106080100140160180200152163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.60.5
49.950.4
Auto6.8
Teleop44.7
End0.0
red by 3.1
48.50.8
46.347.1
Auto-0.7
Teleop49.2
End0.0
Second
43.80.5
42.142.6
Auto2.3
Teleop41.5
End0.0
red by 2.9
3015
#12
40.90.8
38.739.5
Auto0.8
Teleop40.1
End0.0
Third
3838
#14
32.20.5
30.430.9
Auto2.0
Teleop30.2
End0.0
blue by 0.5
378
#16
32.80.8
30.631.4
Auto0.2
Teleop32.6
End0.0