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Red150
540666.8
63922.5
158516.6
Blue134
151141.8
112643.8
155940.8
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98126050150200250300150134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5406
Unranked
66.80.0
66.866.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop66.9
End0.0
red by 23.0
1126
Unranked
43.80.0
43.843.8
Auto2.3
Teleop41.5
End0.0
Second
639
Unranked
22.50.0
22.522.5
Auto0.5
Teleop22.0
End0.0
blue by 19.4
1511
Unranked
41.80.0
41.841.8
Auto0.1
Teleop41.7
End0.0
Third
1585
Unranked
16.60.0
16.616.6
Auto-0.3
Teleop16.9
End0.0
blue by 24.2
1559
Unranked
40.80.0
40.840.8
Auto0.3
Teleop40.5
End0.0