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Red116
300344.0
301542.8
318116.9
Blue114
503045.5
63922.5
317329.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10193406080120140160180116114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3003
Unranked
44.00.0
44.044.0
Auto6.4
Teleop37.6
End0.0
blue by 1.5
5030
Unranked
45.50.0
45.545.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop45.9
End0.0
Second
3015
Unranked
42.80.0
42.842.8
Auto-1.1
Teleop43.8
End0.0
red by 13.0
3173
Unranked
29.70.0
29.729.7
Auto0.2
Teleop29.6
End0.0
Third
3181
Unranked
16.90.0
16.916.9
Auto-0.9
Teleop17.8
End0.0
blue by 5.5
639
Unranked
22.50.0
22.522.5
Auto0.5
Teleop22.0
End0.0