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Red30
279129.3
426617.5
503036.4
Blue39
87021.6
111120.9
53321.0
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions444202060803039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.40.7
16.615.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop36.5
End0.0
red by 14.8
870
#28
21.60.5
19.318.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop21.7
End0.0
Second
2791
#12
29.30.7
19.318.6
Auto0.9
Teleop28.5
End0.0
red by 8.3
533
#24
21.00.5
12.612.1
Auto0.5
Teleop20.5
End0.0
Third
4266
#27
17.50.7
8.57.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop17.8
End0.0
blue by 3.4
1111
#21
20.90.5
13.212.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop21.1
End0.0