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Red100
198536.2
176425.4
408547.7
Blue123
313824.3
62016.8
4858.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions79744060100120100123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.71.2
38.339.4
Auto1.8
Teleop45.9
End0.0
blue by 11.1
48
#3
58.92.6
51.353.9
Auto0.7
Teleop58.2
End0.0
Second
1985
#11
36.21.0
25.226.2
Auto0.2
Teleop36.0
End0.0
red by 11.9
3138
#12
24.33.2
14.217.3
Auto1.5
Teleop22.8
End0.0
Third
1764
#26
25.41.1
17.418.5
Auto0.9
Teleop24.4
End0.0
red by 8.6
620
#30
16.82.6
11.614.2
Auto-0.8
Teleop17.5
End0.0