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Red48
447627.2
503519.4
299413.8
Blue75
496815.3
567217.5
220035.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57572040801004875

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4476
#12
27.20.5
26.025.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop27.4
End0.0
blue by 8.6
35.80.7
31.432.1
Auto0.1
Teleop35.6
End0.0
Second
5035
#20
19.40.7
17.717.0
Auto0.5
Teleop18.9
End0.0
red by 1.9
5672
#14
17.51.0
15.016.1
Auto0.4
Teleop17.1
End0.0
Third
2994
#25
13.80.5
13.513.1
Auto-0.4
Teleop14.2
End0.0
blue by 1.6
4968
#29
15.31.0
14.615.6
Auto0.8
Teleop14.5
End0.0