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Red195
285255.0
205680.5
371019.6
Blue147
124127.5
132540.2
130520.8
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16168050100200250300195147

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.50.9
79.780.5
Auto10.3
Teleop70.2
End0.0
red by 40.3
40.21.0
39.240.2
Auto1.2
Teleop39.0
End0.0
Second
55.00.9
54.155.0
Auto2.1
Teleop52.9
End0.0
red by 27.5
27.51.0
26.427.5
Auto0.6
Teleop26.9
End0.0
Third
3710
#30
19.60.9
18.719.6
Auto0.9
Teleop18.7
End0.0
blue by 1.2
1305
#31
20.81.3
19.620.8
Auto-0.2
Teleop21.1
End0.0