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Red182
95550.1
198379.9
84723.6
Blue152
299041.6
255052.4
412723.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15110650200250182152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.90.5
78.679.1
Auto-0.3
Teleop80.1
End0.0
red by 27.4
52.40.6
52.553.1
Auto0.0
Teleop52.4
End0.0
Second
955
#2
50.10.5
48.849.3
Auto0.2
Teleop49.9
End0.0
red by 8.5
41.60.6
41.742.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop41.7
End0.0
Third
847
#14
23.60.5
22.322.9
Auto-0.0
Teleop23.7
End0.0
red by 0.7
4127
#20
23.00.6
23.123.6
Auto-0.0
Teleop23.0
End0.0