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Red32
20332.5
219111.8
81623.6
Blue6
50807.7
20419.1
540713.4
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions56250100150326

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
203
#2
32.51.8
19.417.6
Auto0.4
Teleop32.1
End0.0
red by 13.4
204
#27
19.11.1
13.112.1
Auto-0.3
Teleop19.4
End0.0
Second
816
#7
23.61.8
20.318.5
Auto0.4
Teleop23.2
End0.0
red by 10.2
5407
#16
13.40.6
7.36.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop13.6
End0.0
Third
2191
#31
11.81.8
13.611.8
Auto-0.4
Teleop12.2
End0.0
red by 4.1
5080
#34
7.70.6
10.29.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.8
End0.0