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Red12
568415.5
392916.8
30419.5
Blue4
81623.6
50807.7
437311.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions41330206080100120124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
304
#10
19.51.2
12.611.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop19.7
End0.0
blue by 4.0
816
#7
23.62.7
18.515.9
Auto0.4
Teleop23.2
End0.0
Second
3929
#24
16.81.9
19.517.6
Auto0.5
Teleop16.3
End0.0
red by 5.4
4373
#18
11.41.6
7.76.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.6
End0.0
Third
5684
#23
15.51.9
9.17.1
Auto0.7
Teleop14.8
End0.0
red by 7.8
5080
#34
7.71.6
9.68.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.8
End0.0