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Red12
32118.8
149511.0
162614.4
Blue6
36529.2
56408.1
540713.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions32470100150200126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
321
#11
18.81.9
10.28.2
Auto1.0
Teleop17.7
End0.0
blue by 10.4
365
#6
29.23.4
26.222.9
Auto1.3
Teleop27.9
End0.0
Second
1626
#28
14.41.9
14.612.7
Auto-0.5
Teleop14.9
End0.0
red by 1.0
5407
#16
13.42.0
9.47.3
Auto-0.2
Teleop13.6
End0.0
Third
1495
#32
11.01.9
10.48.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop11.1
End0.0
red by 2.8
5640
#29DQ
8.13.4
10.87.4
Auto-0.5
Teleop8.7
End0.0