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Red24
541321.4
266511.5
15620.1
Blue26
30629.4
415012.8
351112.0
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions481801001502426

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.40.7
16.215.5
Auto0.0
Teleop21.4
End0.0
red by 8.7
4150
#23
12.80.2
8.58.7
Auto-0.2
Teleop12.9
End0.0
Second
156
#18
20.10.7
14.113.4
Auto1.4
Teleop18.7
End0.0
red by 8.1
3511
#34
12.00.2
8.78.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop12.1
End0.0
Third
2665
#32
11.50.7
14.313.6
Auto1.0
Teleop10.5
End0.0
red by 2.1
3062
#45
9.40.2
6.06.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop9.6
End0.0