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Red126
198384.7
406150.9
321831.0
Blue154
159552.8
491545.2
260542.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14293050200250126154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
84.70.7
79.979.2
Auto-0.5
Teleop85.2
End0.0
red by 31.9
1595
#12
52.82.5
40.543.0
Auto2.2
Teleop50.6
End0.0
Second
4061
#11
50.90.7
38.337.7
Auto-0.3
Teleop51.2
End0.0
red by 5.7
45.22.5
26.829.3
Auto0.1
Teleop45.2
End0.0
Third
3218
#40
31.00.7
21.520.9
Auto0.0
Teleop30.9
End0.0
blue by 11.4
2605
#22
42.42.5
36.539.1
Auto0.5
Teleop41.8
End0.0