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Red116
260542.4
491148.2
460829.1
Blue145
204636.2
366364.5
36039.2
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98122050150200250116145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4911
#45
48.20.5
39.740.2
Auto-0.2
Teleop48.4
End0.0
blue by 16.2
64.51.1
58.059.2
Auto-0.3
Teleop64.8
End0.0
Second
2605
#22
42.40.5
38.338.9
Auto0.5
Teleop41.8
End0.0
red by 3.1
360
#42
39.21.1
34.335.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop39.4
End0.0
Third
4608
#39
29.10.5
27.127.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop29.3
End0.0
blue by 7.1
2046
#17
36.21.1
30.031.2
Auto1.7
Teleop34.5
End0.0