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Red149
448884.4
322134.0
511130.3
Blue131
451335.5
290742.2
198384.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12414950100200250300149131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
84.40.8
81.882.6
Auto0.0
Teleop84.3
End0.0
blue by 0.3
84.71.0
81.180.1
Auto-0.5
Teleop85.2
End0.0
Second
3221
#26
34.00.8
24.925.7
Auto1.1
Teleop32.9
End0.0
blue by 8.2
2907
#34
42.21.0
40.439.4
Auto0.2
Teleop42.0
End0.0
Third
5111
#48
30.30.8
26.227.0
Auto0.7
Teleop29.6
End0.0
blue by 5.2
4513
#16
35.51.0
29.128.1
Auto0.4
Teleop35.1
End0.0