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Red94
378922.8
558822.8
263548.4
Blue94
357436.7
48833.4
378739.8
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions661050501502009494

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2635
#23
48.41.0
41.542.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop48.8
End0.0
red by 8.6
3787
#33
39.80.4
36.636.2
Auto0.7
Teleop39.2
End0.0
Second
3789
#51
22.81.0
14.915.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop22.9
End0.0
blue by 13.9
3574
#41
36.70.4
37.937.5
Auto0.3
Teleop36.4
End0.0
Third
5588
#62
22.81.0
18.519.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop22.9
End0.0
blue by 10.6
488
#37
33.40.4
28.127.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop33.5
End0.0