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Red40
7840.2
417610.8
17408.3
Blue23
127713.8
516317.6
556321.3
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5837020801001201404023

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78
#16
40.20.9
40.339.4
Auto0.5
Teleop39.7
End0.0
red by 18.9
5563
#23
21.30.9
15.314.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop21.6
End0.0
Second
4176
#39
10.81.4
7.86.4
Auto0.3
Teleop10.4
End0.0
blue by 6.9
5163
#30
17.60.9
12.111.2
Auto0.9
Teleop16.8
End0.0
Third
1740
#38
8.31.4
9.27.7
Auto-0.4
Teleop8.7
End0.0
blue by 5.5
1277
#33
13.80.9
14.513.6
Auto-0.2
Teleop14.0
End0.0