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Red112
505716.6
288130.2
70423.1
Blue15
65878.5
436419.2
541715.5
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions733605010015011215

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2881
Unranked
30.20.0
30.230.2
Auto0.2
Teleop30.0
End0.0
red by 11.0
4364
Unranked
19.20.0
19.219.2
Auto0.1
Teleop19.1
End0.0
Second
704
Unranked
23.10.0
23.123.1
Auto0.9
Teleop22.2
End0.0
red by 7.6
5417
Unranked
15.50.0
15.515.5
Auto-0.1
Teleop15.7
End0.0
Third
5057
Unranked
16.60.0
16.616.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop16.7
End0.0
red by 8.1
6587
Unranked
8.50.0
8.58.5
Auto0.2
Teleop8.4
End0.0