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Red133
45725.7
129656.7
373543.9
Blue120
384727.7
458740.6
27898.0
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13363050100150200250133120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.70.0
56.756.7
Auto-1.3
Teleop58.0
End0.0
red by 16.1
40.60.0
40.640.6
Auto0.4
Teleop40.2
End0.0
Second
43.90.0
43.943.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop44.4
End0.0
red by 16.3
3847
#15
27.70.0
27.727.7
Auto1.2
Teleop26.5
End0.0
Third
457
#22
25.70.0
25.725.7
Auto0.7
Teleop25.0
End0.0
red by 17.7
2789
#17
8.00.0
8.08.0
Auto-0.2
Teleop8.2
End0.0