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Red168
62488.3
373543.9
208017.4
Blue126
246872.9
83478.5
384727.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15396050200250168126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
624
Unranked
88.30.0
88.388.3
Auto11.6
Teleop76.7
End0.0
red by 15.4
2468
Unranked
72.90.0
72.972.9
Auto-0.9
Teleop73.8
End0.0
Second
3735
Unranked
43.90.0
43.943.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop44.4
End0.0
red by 16.3
3847
Unranked
27.70.0
27.727.7
Auto1.2
Teleop26.5
End0.0
Third
2080
Unranked
17.40.0
17.417.4
Auto-0.3
Teleop17.7
End0.0
red by 8.8
8347
Unranked
8.50.0
8.58.5
Auto0.2
Teleop8.4
End0.0