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Red48
288130.2
310327.4
373543.9
Blue82
147726.9
420613.3
458740.6
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103730501502004882

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3735
Unranked
43.90.0
43.943.9
Auto-0.4
Teleop44.4
End0.0
red by 3.3
4587
Unranked
40.60.0
40.640.6
Auto0.4
Teleop40.2
End0.0
Second
2881
Unranked
30.20.0
30.230.2
Auto0.2
Teleop30.0
End0.0
red by 3.3
1477
Unranked
26.90.0
26.926.9
Auto0.1
Teleop26.8
End0.0
Third
3103
Unranked
27.40.0
27.427.4
Auto-0.6
Teleop28.0
End0.0
red by 14.1
4206
Unranked
13.30.0
13.313.3
Auto0.1
Teleop13.2
End0.0