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Red23
323715.8
558818.5
378116.6
Blue54
30499.5
252251.4
255519.9
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions436501001502002354

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5588
#13
18.51.3
18.817.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop18.9
End0.0
blue by 32.9
51.40.5
34.634.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop51.6
End0.0
Second
3781
#17
16.61.3
12.911.6
Auto0.1
Teleop16.5
End0.0
blue by 3.3
2555
#18
19.90.5
20.119.6
Auto0.6
Teleop19.3
End0.0
Third
3237
#22
15.81.3
16.815.5
Auto0.7
Teleop15.1
End0.0
red by 6.3
3049
#28
9.50.5
9.69.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop9.7
End0.0